Model versions

This page runs the current model (engine 2026-09-07.1). See the September 2026 review and correction log. For comparisons with beliefs recorded at the May 8 workshop, use the hosted workshop-era model or its tagged source. The archived model is preserved as it was deployed and includes errors corrected here.

Preliminary model — for exploration only

This model is largely AI-generated and has not been fully validated. It is provided to fix ideas, illustrate the modeling approach, and enable exploration — not as authoritative cost estimates. For a more detailed exploration with many more parameters, use the Advanced Model.

This Simplest Model focuses on a few key levers on cultured chicken production cost. Each parameter has an inline explanation — no further reading required to understand what you’re adjusting.

Once you’ve explored here, click → Advanced Model at the bottom of the sidebar to carry your settings over to a fuller parameter set.

Parameters exposed here: Projection Year, P(Growth Factor Breakthrough), P(Hydrolysates adopted), Process Mode Mix, Blended Product

Everything else (WACC, plant size, cell density, media-use multiplier, asset life, downstream costs) is held at reasonable defaults — see the “Background parameters” section in the sidebar.

Adjustable Parameters

Advanced Model →

Projection Year

Further-out years give more time for cost reductions and industry scale-up.

Will a Growth Factor (GF) breakthrough happen?

Growth factors (FGF-2, IGF-1, TGF-β) are the most expensive media ingredient — often 55-95% of media cost at current research-grade prices. A “breakthrough” means at least one of these reaches commercial scale cheaply: autocrine cell lines (cells make their own), plant molecular farming, or precision fermentation. If no breakthrough: GF costs could dominate the total.

Will hydrolysates replace pharma-grade amino acids?

The nutrient broth cells grow in (basal media) requires amino acids. “Hydrolysates” are cheap plant/yeast protein digests that replace expensive pharmaceutical-grade amino acids. Hydrolysates: ~$0.20-1.20/L vs pharma-grade: ~$0.50-2.50/L — a ~70% cost reduction for media.

Blended Product (?)

Most commercial products blend cultured cells with plant-based filler. E.g., 25% CM cells + 75% plant protein at ~$3/kg filler. Even if pure cells are expensive, a blended product can be price-competitive.

Probability of each process mode

Set all three; the simulation normalizes them internally so they always sum to 100%. The indicator below shows whether your raw inputs already total 100%.

Mode Density Media use Cost implication
Fed-batch 5–30 g/L 1–2× Higher cost (less dense)
Perfusion 30–150 g/L 1–5× Medium cost
Continuous 50–200 g/L 0.5–3× Lower cost (denser)

Pure batch (single fill-and-dump) is excluded — not considered commercially viable at scale.

Background parameters held constant in this model
Parameter Value Why fixed
Industry Maturity Base index 0.5 The shared year mapping gives a mean of 0.275 in 2026, 0.40 in 2036, and 0.50 from 2044 onward. Individual draws still vary and correlate adoption with financing. This is a scenario mapping, not an estimated learning curve.
WACC (cost of capital) 8–20% range Sampled from lognormal distribution; p5=8%, p95=20%. Food/biotech industry range from Humbird (2021) and CE Delft (2021).
Asset life 8–20 years (uniform) Typical bioreactor/facility lifecycle; Risner et al. and Humbird use 10–15 yr.
Plant capacity 10–40 kTA (lognormal) Ranges from small-scale (10 kTA) to large (40 kTA) commercial facilities.
CAPEX Included Bioreactor and facility capital costs, annualised via CRF.
Fixed overhead Included. $1–6/kg at reference 20 kTA scale; scales sub-linearly. Labour, maintenance, plant overhead.
Downstream costs Not included (pure cell-mass basis). Downstream costs (scaffolding, texturization) are available in the Advanced Model. Output here is unstructured cell mass at the bioreactor gate.
GF cost progress 50% Midpoint toward industry price targets
Filler cost $3/kg Plant protein / mycoprotein estimate

Full parameter definitions → Model formulas & metrics

Results

Probability Thresholds

Cost Distribution

How is this cost calculated?

\[\text{Unit Cost} = \underbrace{\text{Media}}_{\text{amino acids + nutrients}} + \underbrace{\text{Growth Factors}}_{\text{FGF-2, IGF-1, etc.}} + \text{Supplemental proteins} + \underbrace{\text{Other VOC}}_{\text{utilities, consumables}} + \underbrace{\text{CAPEX/kg}}_{\text{bioreactors, annualised}} + \underbrace{\text{Overhead/kg}}_{\text{labour, maintenance}}\]

The model draws 30,000 random samples for each uncertain parameter (cell density, media price, growth factor quantity/price, reactor costs, asset life, WACC, plant capacity, uptime, etc.) and computes a unit cost for each draw. The histogram above shows the resulting distribution of unit costs; the cards above summarize what fraction of those samples fall below each threshold.

  • Media cost depends on cell density (g/L) and media-use multiplier (× of reactor volume), both determined by process mode.
  • Growth factor cost depends on quantity (g/kg meat) and price ($/g), with a binary regime switch based on P(GF breakthrough).
  • CAPEX is annualised via the Capital Recovery Factor: CRF = r(1+r)^n / ((1+r)^n − 1).

Full formula documentation → Model formulas & metrics (the formulas are the same as the Advanced Model — only the background parameters listed in the sidebar are held constant here.)