This page runs the current model (engine 2026-11-09.1; headline cost per kg dry cell mass since October 26, shown beside the cost of a hybrid product since October 29). Since November 7 the model includes a nutrient floor on medium use, recovery losses, failed runs and seed-train capital, which raised the default median from about $213 to $276 per kg dry; these additions are provisional and not yet reviewed by engineers (details). Since November 9 growth-factor dose follows medium use, which raises it to about $289 (correction). See the September 2026 review and correction log. For comparisons with beliefs recorded at the May 8 workshop, use the hosted workshop-era model or its tagged source. The archived model is preserved as it was deployed and includes errors corrected here.

Two supplied research critiques prompted optional median-preserving priors, explicit growth-factor price ranges, and structural comparisons for media use, GF dosage, and maturity dependence. Baseline numerical assumptions are retained. New controls include provenance tooltips and links to the discussion responses, justification, and remaining questions. These additions are AI-implemented scenario tests, pending expert review.

Corrections, 9 November 2026 (engine 2026-11-09.1). (1) Growth-factor dose was drawn independently of medium use, which allowed physically impossible combinations; it now follows medium use (concentration × litres per kg). At the defaults (seed 42) the median moves from $276 to $289/kg dry, the 90th percentile from $920 to $1,167, and the share under $25/kg hybrid from 58.2% to 55.6% (under $10: 11.6% to 12.0%). (2) The note under the results said recovery losses were not modeled; losses in harvest and washing and failed runs have been in the model since November 7. (3) Retail prices on the demand page are now labelled as retail. Details.

Preliminary model — for exploration only

This model is largely AI-generated and has not been fully validated. It is provided to fix ideas, illustrate the modeling approach, and enable exploration — not as authoritative cost estimates. For a more detailed exploration with many more parameters, use the Advanced Model.

Since October 26, 2026, the headline cost is per kg of dry cell mass, about five times the old per-wet-kg figures (a kg of harvested cells is only about 20% solids). Nothing about the underlying scenario changed.

Why. Washing and dewatering change what a “wet kg” contains: a paste at 15% solids carries half the protein of one at 30%. Dry mass does not change with washing, maps to nutrition, and is the natural basis for nutrient stoichiometry.

Beside every dry-basis cost, and for the probability thresholds, the page shows the cost per kg of a hybrid product: 25% cultivated cells (counted at chicken-meat moisture, 27.5% solids) and 75% plant-based ingredients at $3/kg. Products will not be made entirely of cells; there is no consensus inclusion rate, so 25% is a convention you can change below. The old wet-basis view is available on the Advanced Model under Structural stress tests → Cost basis. Why the basis matters →

AI-drafted (Claude, 26 October 2026) from David Reinstein’s design decision; not yet reviewed by a person.

This Simplest Model focuses on a few key levers on cultured chicken production cost. Each parameter has an inline explanation — no further reading required to understand what you’re adjusting.

Once you’ve explored here, click → Advanced Model at the bottom of the sidebar to carry your settings over to a fuller parameter set.

Parameters exposed here: Projection Year, P(Growth Factor Breakthrough), P(Hydrolysates adopted), Process Mode Mix, Hybrid product inclusion rate

Everything else (WACC, plant size, cell density, media-use multiplier, asset life, downstream costs) is held at reasonable defaults — see the “Background parameters” section in the sidebar.

Adjustable Parameters

Advanced Model →

Projection Year

Further-out years give more time for cost reductions and industry scale-up.

Will a Growth Factor (GF) breakthrough happen?

Growth factors (FGF-2, IGF-1, TGF-β) are the most expensive media ingredient — often 55-95% of media cost at current research-grade prices. A “breakthrough” means at least one of these reaches commercial scale cheaply: autocrine cell lines (cells make their own), plant molecular farming, or precision fermentation. If no breakthrough: GF costs could dominate the total.

Will hydrolysates replace pharma-grade amino acids?

The nutrient broth cells grow in (basal media) requires amino acids. “Hydrolysates” are cheap plant/yeast protein digests that replace expensive pharmaceutical-grade amino acids. Hydrolysates: ~$0.20-1.20/L vs pharma-grade: ~$0.50-2.50/L — a ~70% cost reduction for media.

Hybrid product (?)

Probability of each process mode

Set all three; the simulation normalizes them internally so they always sum to 100%. The indicator below shows whether your raw inputs already total 100%.

Mode Density Media use Cost implication
Fed-batch 1–6 g dry/L 1–2× Higher cost (less dense)
Perfusion 6–30 g dry/L 1–5× Medium cost
Continuous 10–40 g dry/L 0.5–3× Lower cost (denser)

Pure batch (single fill-and-dump) is excluded — not considered commercially viable at scale.

Background parameters held constant in this model
Parameter Value Why fixed
Industry Maturity Base index 0.5 The shared year mapping gives a mean of 0.275 in 2026, 0.40 in 2036, and 0.50 from 2044 onward. Individual draws still vary and correlate adoption with financing. This is a scenario mapping, not an estimated learning curve.
WACC (cost of capital) 8–20% range Sampled from lognormal distribution; p5=8%, p95=20%. Food/biotech industry range from Humbird (2021) and CE Delft (2021).
Asset life 8–20 years (uniform) Typical bioreactor/facility lifecycle; Risner et al. and Humbird use 10–15 yr.
Plant capacity 10–40 kTA (lognormal) Ranges from small-scale (10 kTA) to large (40 kTA) commercial facilities.
CAPEX Included Bioreactor and facility capital costs, annualised via CRF.
Fixed overhead Included. $1–6 per wet kg ($5–30 per kg dry) at reference 20 kTA (thousand tonnes of wet biomass a year) scale; scales sub-linearly. Labour, maintenance, plant overhead.
Forming and texturization Not included: outside the estimate. Scaffolding, texturization and forming can be added in the Advanced Model. Output here is unstructured cell mass at the bioreactor gate. Harvest, washing and dewatering belong inside the estimate but are not yet modeled explicitly.
GF cost progress 50% Midpoint toward industry price targets
Filler cost $3/kg Plant protein / mycoprotein estimate

Full parameter definitions → Model formulas & metrics

Results

Quantity being modeled: manufacturing cost per kg of cultured-chicken dry cell mass for a hypothetical plant/process scenario. Each draw samples one process; process weights are probabilities across scenarios, not production shares within a simulated industry. The output is not an industry-average forecast or a frontier estimate. Commercialization probability is unmodeled; dollars retain mixed source years.

Probability Thresholds

Cost Distribution

How is this cost calculated?

\[\text{Unit Cost} = \underbrace{\text{Media}}_{\text{amino acids + nutrients}} + \underbrace{\text{Growth Factors}}_{\text{FGF-2, IGF-1, etc.}} + \text{Supplemental proteins} + \underbrace{\text{Other VOC}}_{\text{utilities, consumables}} + \underbrace{\text{CAPEX/kg}}_{\text{bioreactors, annualised}} + \underbrace{\text{Overhead/kg}}_{\text{labour, maintenance}}\]

The model draws 30,000 random samples for each uncertain parameter (cell density, media price, growth factor quantity/price, reactor costs, asset life, WACC, plant capacity, uptime, etc.) and computes a unit cost for each draw. The histogram above shows the resulting distribution of unit costs; the cards above summarize what fraction of those samples fall below each threshold.

  • Media cost depends on cell density (g/L) and media-use multiplier (× of reactor volume), both determined by process mode.
  • Growth factor cost depends on quantity (g/kg) and price ($/g), with a binary regime switch based on P(GF breakthrough). Since November 9, 2026 the quantity follows medium use: litres of medium per kg × a fixed growth-factor concentration (0.102 mg/L), reduced to 40% of that in the breakthrough regime.
  • CAPEX is annualised via the Capital Recovery Factor: CRF = r(1+r)^n / ((1+r)^n − 1).

Full formula documentation → Model formulas & metrics (the formulas are the same as the Advanced Model — only the background parameters listed in the sidebar are held constant here.)